2024 NFL Mock Draft 2.0

My second mock draft of the year consists of 1 round, with analysis and justifications for all 32 picks. However, there is one stipulation: no trades. I have accounted for team needs but also the randomness/variety we see every draft.

Referenced data collected by/from Pro Football Focus (PFF). Draft order via Tankathon as of 1/4/24.

Since there are no trades allowed whatsoever in this mock draft, Chicago retains their current quarterback in Justin Fields. In comes Marvin Harrison Jr., a generational talent. MHJ is coming off another 1200-yard, 14-touchdown season for the Buckeyes this year, ranking #1 in the Big10 conference in those respective statistical areas. The addition of this year's Biletnikoff trophy recipient to the Bears offense instantly creates a superb receiving tandem with veteran wideout DJ Moore. MHJ can do it all, even in instances where you'd think he can't. He may not be the flashiest or the twitchiest receiver, but he consistently just gets it done. His hands and body control are next-level, so the transition will be seamless.

The Commanders need a quarterback. Although Sam Howell has shown flashes, he hasn't done enough to establish himself as a franchise centerpiece. It has been reported that head coach Ron Rivera will be on his way out when the season concludes. Thus, I'd expect a new regime to want a fresh start at the team's most important position. It has become a 1a-1b situation with this year's top two prospects in the quarterback class. Caleb Williams versus Drake Maye. You can take your pick at either one, and although I personally think Drake Maye would be the safer selection, Caleb Williams possesses a bit more flair and nuance than Maye does. The arm talent is there, we know that. He also excels at play extension and creating post-snap, and had another double-digit rushing touchdown season (11; 10 last year). He can be too quick to rely on his running ability, however. He has played in a USC offense that often requires only one read, so I'd like to see him work through his progressions more prior to scrambling/creating.

New England has struggled mightily this year, in large part due to their quarterback play. Moving on from Mac Jones for a prospect like Drake Maye is an easy decision in my eyes. Drake Maye would have been the top quarterback taken in the 2023 draft. I don't think that is a ridiculous statement. In my pre-season scouting report for Drake Maye, I mentioned in my notes section how there was the potential for him to surpass Williams as QB1 if Williams were to slump or not meet his previous Heisman season standards. Well, here we are at that exact situation. This year, he is in a photo-finish race with Caleb Williams for being the first quarterback to come off the board. Maye's big time throw percentage of 7.5% tied for first among all FBS quarterbacks with a minimum of 490 dropbacks. He scrambled 51 times this year, and racked up 582 rushing yards and 9 rushing TDs. You cannot overlook that. Maye is so confident in the pocket and consistently hits the off-platform throws. His deep ball accuracy is tremendous as well.

Neither Marquise Brown nor Rondale Moore have produced to a point where you could say "That's the guy". Michael Wilson has shown some potential, but Arizona desperately needs a true #1 receiver, and Nabers would command that role immediately. If it weren't for Marvin Harrison Jr., we would be talking so much more about Malik Nabers. But that's how good MHJ is. Regardless, Nabers was phenomenal this season: 89 receptions, 1568 receiving yards, 14 TDs. As far as his play goes, the explosiveness, ball-skills, and overall athletic ability are all there. He isn't a huge deep threat, but he does often win with suddenness and stretches the field for his quarterback.

This year's Heisman winner, Jayden Daniels is exactly what the Giants need at the quarterback position: a fresh start. Yes, New York did give current QB Daniel Jones a new 4 yr/$160M contract, but the first potential out of that contract is in 2025. I think teams around the NFL wouldn't mind taking a shot at the remainder of Jones' contract by that time, thus paving the way for the Giants to explore their options at the position. Daniels was phenomenal this year: 3811 passing yards, 40 passing TDs, 4 INTs, 71.1% completion percentage. Plus, he tacked on 1250 rushing yards and 10 rushing TDs. However, he isn't perfect. He isn't a confident pocket passer. He thrived in an offense in which he didn't need to uncork the ball much at all. This season he had 159 completions between zero and nine yards down the field, but just 16 beyond twenty yards. Compare that to a prospect like Drake Maye, who had 160 completions between zero and nine yards, but also 43 completions tallying 1331 yards on passes beyond twenty yards. There will be a refinement period at the next level. I think Daniels is in that same realm as Lamar Jackson, but he isn't as athletic as Lamar.

Arguably the best tight end prospect ever. There is almost nothing that Brock Bowers can't do. If you take a look at this tight end class, there is a GAP between Bowers and the rest. To continue building around franchise QB Justin Herbert, LA needs to bring in youth in the offensive weapons department. TE Gerald Everrett is at the end of his 2-year deal. WR Keenan Allen is up there in age, and WR Mike Williams has proven to be injury-prone. The jury is still out on rookie WR Quentin Johnston. The point is, the Chargers could really use a difference maker. Brock Bowers is that guy. I don't need to dig up stats or anything else to further justify that fact.

Much like the 1a-1b situation we have in this year's QB class, we have the same for the offensive tackles. Joe Alt versus Olu Fashanu. Which facet of the game do you like more, run blocking or pass blocking? With Joe Alt, he is much more refined in the run blocking game than he is in pass pro. Olu is the opposite. While Olu is more athletic, Alt has better overall technique in my eyes. Where Olu wins in footwork, Alt wins in hand placement and balance. Where Olu wins in quickness, Alt wins in power. I like Alt a just a bit more though, hence why he goes off the board first. He is more of a stalwart tackle than Fashanu, but Alt could still use polishing. His footwork isn't great. His first kick off the line could use more power behind it. But he can really haul himself down the field in a hurry, especially in run schemes. The Titans have their quarterback of the foreseeable future in Will Levis, so you need to build a wall for him to throw behind, because right now there isn't much of one in Tennessee. Couple that with the fact that the Titans have prided themselves on their run game over the last several seasons, in large part due to the play of Derrick Henry, and you have the perfect fit in Joe Alt for those needs and staples.

The same as above but flip it. Olu is an exceptional athlete. He is much more sound in pass pro than he is in run, but that shouldn't take anything away from his overall ability. Fashanu is really fluid in pass sets. He looks so comfortable. He knows how to use his size well, but at times can get over-zealous and compromise his balance. Olu has good hands, but could be better with his placement as he gives way to his chest a fair bit. Fashanu can entirely eliminate edge rushers from the game much more often than Alt, however. That's what happens when you're 6'6"-317. Although offensive tackle isn't the flashiest pick here for the Jets, I do think they need the most help in that area. Wide receiver is another option - a guy like Rome Odunze could have come off the board here. Fashanu is just too good to pass up though, especially when the Jets have arguably the worst offensive line in the NFL. When Aaron Rodgers is back at full health next season, he'll need time to throw the ball. Fashanu is a massive step in the direction to make that possible.

The Atlanta Falcons could definitely use a fresh start at quarterback. Desmond Ridder has not panned out. This offense has weapons like Drake London and Bijan Robinson who could use a boost from better quarterback play. The offensive play-calling was definitely suspect throughout this season for Atlanta, so hopefully that can be resolved as well. Michael Penix Jr. is probably the best thrower of the ball in this class. He put that on display for those who hadn't had much exposure to him in the CFP Semifinal against Texas. His film is great, and probably the most fun QB film I have watched this year. He can absolutely rip it around the field, and when he's on his game, Penix Jr. will start dealing. He can effortlessly connect with receivers at all levels of the field, and his ball placement is excellent. Penix Jr. is also exceptional at using his eyes to move secondary defenders. The knock to his game comes in the form of production of out structure. He doesn't excel in this area. His participation at the Reese's Senior Bowl will be huge, giving him an opportunity to prove otherwise. Although I do think we should key in on how well has has played these last two seasons fully healthy, the major red flag is his medical history.

Jared Verse has been my #1 edge rusher all year in my rankings. I truly believe he has the highest floor out of all of the edge rushers in this class. He has really heavy hands, but in this case it is a good thing. If you turn on the film, you can see it is as if when Verse gets his hands on a lineman, there are shockwaves sent through the lineman's body. Yes that is an exaggeration, but it also isn't. Verse can effortlessly force linemen onto their heels. He sets the edge really well too. I assume adding a prospect like Jared Verse to rush opposite of Montez Sweat would be a welcome sight in Chicago.

It should be pointed out that the Raiders defense put things together in the second half of the season. So it wouldn't be crazy if they weren't to draft for the defensive side of the ball in the first round. However, I did so anyway, as Las Vegas selects Kool-Aid McKinstry. He is definitely a pure athlete, we've seen that in the punt return game. He has excellent ball skills and possesses high awareness in zone coverage. He is actually phenomenal in zone, it is impressive. He is physical, but sometimes not physical enough. Receivers can take him deep and win if they beat him in the bump and run game. I do think he is CB1 in this class, but I also don't think it is by a huge margin. His opposite, Terrion Arnold, is right behind him.

If it weren't for the medical history, Latu would be the sure-fire #1 edge rusher in my rankings. He's third, though. Minnesota needs to bolster their pass rush, and Latu can do just that. The Vikings have hit a point where they can move on from guys like Danielle Hunter, Marcus Davenport, and Anthony Barr, whose contracts all expire at the end of this season. Out of the top edge rushers in this class, Laiatu Latu probably has the most polished set of pass rush moves that he can consistently go to for utilization. That sets him apart from the others. Although, I don't think he's going to test very well, especially if the medicals aren't clean.

Rome Odunze is another insane receiver talent. This is a guy who also could've won the Biletnikoff. There is a lot that Rome Odunze does that you just can' teach, especially those late hands (WHEW!). Odunze has been the alpha target in the Huskies receiving room the last two seasons, syncing up with Michael Penix Jr. on a regularly dominant basis. He is a true, confident wide receiver. It's almost like he runs routes in a way in which he knows he is better than the guy covering him. There is a lot of nuance to his game, similar to Marvin Harrison Jr. in the fact that he might not be the twitchiest, but he will dominate you. His catching ability is superb. Odunze can high-point the ball well, but isn't solely a contested catch receiver. That is what sets him apart from the rest of the "contested catch guys". Odunze was a sprinter in high school at Bishop Gorman, and his recorded times uphold that. However, it doesn't necessarily translate to when he's in pads. I'd like to see more burst/fire from him to start his routes. A talent like him would be a welcome sight in New Orleans alongside Chris Olave. I know Derek Carr hasn't been great so far in a Saints uniform, but the receiver play wasn't always amazing either.

Russell Wilson has been benched, with the rumored potential of being cut this offseason. Edge rusher is another huge need for Denver, but the quarterback situation needs to be solved. I personally do not have a first round grade on Bo Nix, but I think his participation in the Reese's Senior Bowl will help potentially propel him into the first round to be selected by a QB-needy team. There is a lot to like about Nix's play based on his film. He's strong in both arm and body, confident in the pocket, and athletic. He can get mobile and use his legs at a good level. The short level of the field is his bread and butter. He's really accurate here and can rifle the ball with great precision. Nix's ball placement, especially on timing routes, is great too. He is in a minimal-read offense though, so there will be an adjustment period at the NFL level in terms of working through his progressions. He had 125 completions behind the line of scrimmage this season, and 147 between zero and nine yards. Also at times he just misses the easy throws, but then completes the hard ones which is funny to me. That tendency leaks into his deep and intermediate passes, though not to too much detriment.

You can't help but be excited about a prospect like Dallas Turner. He is probably the most athletic edge rusher in the class; he is going to test really well. Five contracts belonging to a mix of outside linebackers and defensive ends will expire at the end of this season for Seattle. Pairing Dallas Turner with Boye Mafe and having them wreak havoc off the edges for the foreseeable future is nightmare fuel for opposing teams, but absolute gold for the Seahawks. I know that their quarterback situation is also shaky, with question marks looming around Geno Smith and Drew Lock. If they want to take a shot at a quarterback, there are guys who will be available in the later rounds of the draft who could be worth a look, such as Michael Pratt, Spencer Rattler, or Cam Ward.

Yes, JC Latham got absolutely manhandled which played a big part in that horrible 4th down QB draw call for the Crimson Tide in the CFP semifinal versus Michigan. But that is one play. ONE. The rest of Latham's film? It's awesome. He is 6'6", 360 pounds and moves really well. I was consistently impressed by his ability to get out into space and move. His first step off the line is great; he fires off the LOS with great strength and relative ease. He uses his size to his advantage as well, consistently bullying defenders both in pass pro and as a run blocker. Latham might not be the sexiest pick out of the other potential first round linemen, but he is up there for me. The Bengals could use his services. RT Jonah Williams can hit free agency, and Cincy can get new blood at that position to help shore up Joe Burrow's protection.

Jer'Zhan Newton does everything right in the defensive interior. He's a mauler, a bully, whatever you'd like you refer to him as. He has constantly caused disruption alongside Keith Randolph Jr. on Illinois' defensive front, and I think the Cardinals could use a talent like Newton. DTs Leki Fotu and Kevin Strong are on expiring contracts. Arizona can bring in youth to their defensive front to help with their rebuild.

Oh man is Nate Wiggins good. He just has that "dog" to his play; aggressive but dials it in to the point where it is very effective. Wiggins has insane reaction speed and closes on the ball so well, and he does it consistently too. He's great at disguising his coverages and gets physical at the line of scrimmage. He missed some time this year with a bone bruise/knee injury, which could potentially garner slight concern, but I think he'll test fine. Wiggins only gave up 18 receptions and 176 yards this year. Throwing him into Pittsburgh's secondary to create a cornerback pairing with Joey Porter Jr. would be a sight to behold.

Alright Green Bay, it is time. Taliese Fuaga is the perfect fit for that offensive line, and it is at the perfect time. QB Jordan Love is playing well, making himself look like a worthwhile investment. But if you're going to invest in Love, you need to invest in protecting him too. The staple offensive tackle for years in Green Bay, David Bakhtiari, is at the tail end of his career. His injury this year just adds to that. The Packers chapter of his career, at least, can close now. Replace him with Taliese Fuaga, an absolute monster out of Oregon State. Fuaga is another tackle in this class who is a surprise when it comes to his movement ability. He loves to play through the whistle. He's a mauler in the run game, which is his strength in comparison to pass pro where he needs work. Fuaga has great hand placement and anchors well. He is susceptible to speed and getting beat off the line, as he'll be overly aggressive and lunge or give up his leverage. Some folks think his reach/arm length isn't what you would want in a tackle, thus forcing him inside to guard, but I'm not too sure I see that.

What Trice lacks in length as an edge rusher, he makes up for in his ability to disrupt both the run and the pass. Effort, effort, effort. That is Trice's strength. That aspect is similar to Chop Robinson, but Trice actually brings nuance to the table. He has a really high motor, and is relentless in his pursuit via heavy hands that allow him to power into the backfield. I could see him falling further down the board due to the fact that his effort and motor outweigh his overall productivity. He'll be a gem for whoever draft him, though, and I think Tampa Bay could use his services.

The Colts need help in the secondary, and Terrion Arnold will get it done. He is Kool-Aid McKinstry's counterpart, and they worked so well together at Alabama, but will be apart at the pro level. Arnold is hot on McKinstry's heels in my cornerback rankings, and rightfully so. He is an excellent tackler and provides great run support. Like McKinstry, he is excellent in zone coverage and has ball skills to match. Arnold's long arms/reach allow him to be disruptive. He is great at digesting routes, but his closing and recovery speed need refinement. He is too talented to get beat the way he does quite often. Arnold is at his best when he follows his instincts. That is when he makes the big time plays, like a key pass breakup or forcing a momentum-swinging turnover. With some slight polishing at the next level, Terrion Arnold has the making for a bright, long future as an NFL pro.

I am starting to see the light when it comes to Brian Thomas Jr., my new WR4. There is so much nuance to his game. He moves really well, has excellent body control, and has great hands at all levels of the field. He's 6'4"-205, so he's a nice target for QBs. Thomas Jr. can get physical but isn't the best against press coverage. He doesn't possess game-breaking speed, but his size counteracts that. I think he would be a great fit in Jacksonville and a primary target for Trevor Lawrence. I think the Calvin Ridley experience was alright. They could use a younger, cheaper target alongside that big contract in Christian Kirk.

Chop is the fourth edge rusher off the board in this mock, and I don't think that should come as a surprise. Don't get it twisted, Chop will test well; he's an exceptional athlete. But, that is all he sort of brings to the table as a pass rusher. Unlike Laiatu Latu, who I have getting drafted before Chop in this mock to the Vikings at 12, Robinson doesn't have much nuance to his pass rush game. There isn't a set of moves for him to rely on to win consistently. He is as athletic as they come but that's all he has going for himself. He relies on that athleticism (speed, motor, will, etc.) to beat tackles around the edge, and that just isn't going to be enough at the NFL level. In 2023, his pass rush win rate was 20%.

I know Buffalo could use an additional receiver, but man if Cooper DeJean is there at 24, the Bills shouldn't even blink. DeJean is a home run pick for any team. His film was the most fun defensive player film I've watched this year. We've seen the athleticism in the punt return game, and Iowa has deployed him in a variety of positions. Listed as a corner, I think DeJean is best suited to play strong safety at the next level. He would be my #1 ranked safety if it wasn't for him being listed as a corner. Buffalo's situation would be perfect for DeJean. Safeties Micah Hyde and Jordan Poyer are both over 30 and on expiring contracts. CB Tre White has been picking up injuries in recent years. The Bills really need some youth in their secondary, and Cooper DeJean is too good of a player to pass up on to not fill that need.

Keon Coleman has been a fascinating prospect this season. He had so many sensational plays for Florida State this year. But I don't think his overall ability warrants a high first round pick, hence him sliding to the late first round in this mock. I wouldn't be surprised if Coleman is an early second rounder in the real NFL draft. For as physically gifted as he is, and for as well as he does at high-pointing the ball to come down with so many contested catches, Coleman creates little to no separation. His separation ability needs to be cleaned up immediately. In fact, he is in the 12th percentile. 12th. That is not good. From a statistical standpoint, he is barely creating enough separation to even warrant a target from his quarterback, hence the frequency in contested catches. Time and time again we see that, at the NFL level, the "contested catch" receivers don't have a long career, and it is because they don't create enough separation to warrant a big pay day as a receiver. If Coleman can work on his separation ability, I genuinely believe he will be fine and have a great career. Kansas City is one of those teams that could really use a boost to their wide receiver group, and I think Coleman would be a nice addition.

If you look at Philadelphia's roster, there aren't many grey areas. Looking at the cornerback position, however, the Eagles could use some youth. Darius Slay and James Bradberry are 33-years-old and 30-years-old respectively, and will be 35 and 32 when their contracts expire. Draft a young corner like Quinyon Mitchell. He put together another great season this year for Toledo, with 14 passes defended and one interception. He was targeted 62 times in which he only gave up 27 receptions, 290 yards, a 51.1 passer rating, and a 43.5% completion percentage which ranks 4th among all FBS cornerbacks with a minimum of 400 coverage snaps.

I really like Detroit going corner in the first round. Their secondary is pretty suspect outside of CJ Gardner-Johnson. Kamari Lassiter is a proven corner coming out of Georgia. He gave up just a 15 receptions, 160 yards, and 37.5% completion percentage on 40 targets this year. He is great in both zone and man, and possesses the vertical speed to stay in coverage on receivers moving down the field. Lassiter plays physical, but being only around 180 pounds, he might get out-muscled at the NFL level his rookie year. 

I for one might be a bit higher on Emeka Egbuka than others are. He didn't really have the season we were expecting this year, but he has an exceptional football IQ which he uses to his advantage. He's 6'1"-205, and will most likely be a great slot receiver at the NFL level. Egbuka probably isn't going to be the flashiest receiver, but he'll get it done in the soft spots of coverages. He boasts being in the 95th percentile in separation; 91st percentile against single coverage. He lacks game-breaking speed and isn't the best at getting in and out of his cuts, but Egbuka can really play. Houston will be great fit for him in a young offense structured around CJ Stroud. Texans fans should be thrilled if Stroud's weaponry consists of Collins, Dell, and Egbuka in 2024.

Miami's thorn in their side has been their offensive line for well over a decade now, however things appear to be on the up. They extended RT Austin Jackson for three years after his terrific play in his contract year this year. RG Robert Hunt has proven to be a solid starter. C Connor Williams is terrific, though out for the rest of the season due to injury. And LT Terron Armstead is a savvy veteran, though injury-prone. That leaves the left guard position, and Troy Fautanu is perfect. Although he plays left tackle at Washington, I think Fautanu is best suited for left guard at the next level. He doesn't have the biggest reach. He doesn't have the best get-off in pass pro. He thrives as a run blocker though, and excels at getting to the next level, which makes sense considering his build. He is 6'4"-320, so not exactly a mountain you'd want on an island at left tackle, but a perfect bruiser in the interior. Fautanu can swing around the field, which I think is a great fit for Mike McDaniel's offensive scheme.

Now if you want a mountain tackle, here he is. Amarius Mims stands at 6'7", 340 pounds. And let me be one to say that it is a good 340. Mims abuses his size, absolutely deleting edge rushers just by mirroring them. He moves really well, but at times not well enough. It isn't that he takes plays off, but rather he only gives 99% effort. NFL teams want 100% and over. Hopefully that analogy makes sense. A right tackle like Mims should be sending defenders into the stratosphere, but it just doesn't happen on film. He has missed time due to injury, which has limited his total collegiate snap count, but there is so much talent and ability here that has only been partially unlocked. Whoever drafts him will be thrilled, and Dallas could be a good landing spot. The Cowboys historically have prided themselves on having a tremendous offensive line. A fully-developed Amarius Mims would be a staple right tackle for years to come.

Graham Barton will swing inside and play in the interior at the next level. He's served as Duke's left tackle the past three seasons, but a move inside will be best for him. He's average in pass pro, but a monster in run blocking. He's ultra aggressive and quick to fire off the LOS with good leverage. He can move upfield well, but also isn't the most athletic. He's in the same bucket as Fuaga and Fautanu for me. Guys that will just maul in the trenches on run plays, but need refinement for true pass sets. The 49ers have few holes in their roster, but I think offensive line is a good pick here. You can bolster up that unit as well as prepare for the future when Trent Williams calls it a career. Perhaps at that point, Barton could swing out to left tackle as his replacement and be serviceable.

It was a bit of a let-down this season when it came to Kalen King. In the pre-season, King was my #2 cornerback. Now, he's 6th. King gave up a 61% completion percentage this year, in comparison to just 45.8% the season prior. I think it was just a bit of a slump this year, or perhaps he has become a victim to over-analyzation. Kalen King was still one of the best corners in the Big 10 this year. He boasts excellent footwork and fluidity in his hips, but is often loose in his overall coverage technique. King is susceptible to being fixated on the quarterback and play development in the backfield, thus creating undesired space between himself and his receiver. His closing speed is good, but not fast enough to mitigate said undesired space. At his best, King blankets receivers and is disruptive with his hands, and is also a formidable tackler when in run support.